For practically the entirety of their careers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been extraordinary offensive players. Since the beginning of the 2016-17 NHL season, McDavid and Draisaitl rank first and second among all players in points, with 992 and 851 points respectively. The Edmonton Oilers could go a long time before finding players even close to their offensive calibre again.
Unfortunately, the Oilers as a team have experienced several struggles over the years. And when Edmonton is losing, it’s not uncommon to see some fans and media quick to place blame on McDavid and Draisaitl’s two-way play. For a multitude of reasons, this has always been a ridiculous stance in my mind.
That being said, McDavid and Draisaitl’s underlying defensive metrics were indeed quite lacklustre early on. Of course, their elite offensive output has always outweighed their defensive results by a significant margin, but it doesn’t change the fact that Edmonton’s stars were simply not great in their own end at the beginning of their careers.
Fortunately, McDavid took a massive step forward in his defensive play in 2020-21, and I wrote an article all about it a few years back. Ever since the start of 2021, McDavid’s underlying defensive metrics have ranged from above-average to flat-out excellent. 
But on the other hand, Draisaitl’s defensive stats generally remained subpar for quite some time. 
At least, that was the case until this season.
Leon Draisaitl is currently having a fantastic year. At the halfway mark of the 2024-25 season, Draisaitl ranks second in the league in total points, and first in even-strength points. He’s also the league leader in goals, as he is on pace to win the first Rocket Richard trophy of his career. All in all, it is evident that Draisaitl has been fantastic offensively.
But, there’s another aspect of Draisaitl’s performance this season that I am even more impressed with; his defensive play.

How Leon Draisaitl’s advanced defensive stats have seen a massive improvement in 2024-25

Now, evaluating defensive performance in the first place is often controversial and subjective amongst many hockey fans. How I personally evaluate skater defence is based around the objective definition of defence in the first place; preventing goals and scoring chances. 
That’s why I like to use EvolvingHockey’s EVD (Even-Strength Defence) model. In a nutshell, EVD is a stat that measures a skater’s impact on preventing EV scoring chances against by attempting to adjust the player’s results for external factors such as quality of teammates, quality of competition, zone starts, and more. Basically, it aims to answer the following question; how does Skater X impact the volume and quality of the shots their goaltender faces when they are on-ice?
So, here is a season-by-season timeline of Draisaitl’s EVD per 60 minutes of play:
As mentioned earlier, Draisaitl’s defensive impacts early in his career were quite awful, which is evident from this chart. You’ll see that his EVD/60 impact consistently ranked below the 50th percentile, and was particularly abysmal from 2018-2021.
But, that has completely changed this season.
Thus far in 2024-25, Draisaitl’s EVD/60 has improved all the way to the 84th percentile. In fact, no forward (minimum 300 TOI) in the entire NHL has seen a greater increase in EVD/60 this season than Draisaitl. Pretty impressive.
Now, I understand that some may be skeptical of this stat. This metric primarily uses expected goals against instead of actual goals against (EvolvingHockey’s reasoning is that actual GA can often be impacted by goaltending), and publicly available xG models have some flaws. Fair points. But, Draisaitl’s defensive improvement is still empirically reflected in many other ways. 
Firstly, let’s take a look at simple, plain old goals against. Here’s a look at Draisaitl’s 5v5 GA/60 rates throughout every season of his career:
This season, Draisaitl has been on-ice for a mere 1.77 goals against per hour at 5-on-5. That is nearly half of what it was two seasons ago. For reference, Aleksander Barkov – the reigning Selke Trophy winner – has been on-ice for 1.9 goals against per 60 this season. 
Furthermore, NHL teams often access analytics from private stat companies, such as CSA (Clear Sight Analytics). CSA has an expected goal model with much more detailed inputs than public models, and is thus typically more accurate. Luckily for us, CSA posts a brief glimpse of their results every season. According to their model, Draisaitl ranks first in the entire league in expected goal plus-minus at even-strength; this suggests that public/private xG models do not have a significant discrepancy in this case, and Draisaitl’s EVD results shown above are indeed likely accurate.
TLDR; whether you look at actual goals, public or private expected goals, or simple shots allowed, Leon Draisaitl’s defensive impacts this season have been fantastic.

So, what changed for Draisaitl this season?

When it comes to player analysis, evaluation of results is obviously key, but it’s also crucial to analyze how a player achieved their results in the first place in order to see if they can sustain. This is especially important in Draisaitl’s case; looking solely at the charts above, one could interpret that this season is simply a statistical outlier.
So, what exactly has Draisaitl specifically done this season to improve so dramatically?
Some may point at Draisaitl’s zone starts as to why his metrics improved; per Hockey Reference, Draisaitl’s offensive zone start percentage is 61 percent, a full 6 percent higher than last season. However, I’d recommend reading this article by Matt Cane (current vice president of Hockey Analytics for the New Jersey Devils!) from a few years back, which outlines why most zone starts are actually earned by a player, not deployed by the coach. It’s definitely worth mentioning that, per EvolvingHockey, the opposition has averaged 6.03 icings per 60 with Draisaitl on-ice, the highest rate of his career; it’s a huge reason why he’s taken so many offensive-zone draws.
The website PuckIQ has a stat called “shift starts,” which measures what zone of the ice a player started their shift in; this is much more reflective of coach deployment than traditional zone starts. Per PuckIQ, Draisaitl currently leads the Oilers in d-zone shift starts per game (!), so we obviously can’t just attribute his numbers to zone starts.
Others may wonder if Draisaitl is facing easier quality of competition this year. However, per PuckIQ, Draisaitl played 32 percent of his TOI against elite opposition in 2023-24, while it’s at 35 percent this season; if anything, his role difficulty has actually increased. Thus, we can safely conclude that Draisaitl’s improved defensive results are not simply the product of deployment.
With everything in mind, I believe there are three key reasons for Draisaitl’s defensive breakthrough.

1. Consistent involvement in the defensive zone

A week back, Draisaitl himself was asked about his two-way game and his improved underlying numbers.
“I think just the consistency of [my two-way game] is something I’m very proud of,” said Draisaitl. “I’ve always had moments where I can defend really, really well, it was just a matter of doing it each and every night.”
I believe Draisaitl is bang on here.
Here’s the thing; stats measure results, not necessarily ability. Just because Player X has bad defensive results, it doesn’t automatically mean they can’t be a good defensive player at all. In Draisaitl’s case, lack of defensive ability was not the major issue; instead, a critical problem with Draisaitl’s defensive game in past seasons was inconsistency. Indeed, there have been numerous games throughout the years where Draisaitl would sufficiently break up plays in the DZ, block passes, and so on.
But, the problem was that there were also far too many games where Draisaitl would glide and circle around the top of the defensive zone, looking for a stretch pass the other way instead of stopping on pucks and supporting his defencemen. There were far too many stretches of games where he would seldom engage in puck battles down low in his zone, or backcheck to prevent rushes.
The fact is, Draisaitl has all the physical tools to be an elite defensive player. He has the size and strength to push players off pucks and break up cycles, excellent skating abilities to move the puck out of his own end at high rates, and fantastic overall instincts.
Finally, he is consistently utilizing those tools to become a truly complete player. Let’s go through some video examples.
This play comes late in the third period in Edmonton’s defensive zone, where they’re up by a single goal against the Seattle Kraken. Initially, Seattle’s forwards do a good job at cycling the puck, and Jaden Schwartz wins a key battle against Darnell Nurse. Luckily, Draisaitl steps in behind his own net, and easily uses his size and strength to separate him off the puck. Brett Kulak initially fails to get it out of the zone, but Draisaitl remains in good position to move it out himself, and the Oilers generate a decent shot off the play. Notice how active and engaged Draisaitl was down low in his own end.
Here are two examples of great backchecks by Draisaitl. Firstly, as Anaheim’s defenders look to move it out of their own end, Draisaitl applies constant forecheck pressure in the OZ, limiting time and space for them to make a clean play. As Anaheim attempts a zone entry at the blueline, Draisaitl strips the Ducks forward of the puck from behind and goes the other way to generate an entry himself.
On the second play, Ducks centre Leo Carlsson enters Edmonton’s zone, but Draisaitl effectively takes away the puck away from him. He then uses his size and elite puck protection skills to draw two Anaheim forwards to him down low in the zone, allowing him to pass to Evan Bouchard in a favourable position, who gives him the puck right back. Draisaitl then proceeds to carry the puck out of the DZ and into the OZ, eventually resulting in a high-danger chance by Zach Hyman.
On this play, as Boston attempts to create a chance off the cycle, Draisaitl makes a smart stick lift disrupting an opposition pass and allowing Vasily Podkolzin to pass the puck out of the zone, and yet again, it results in a quality chance for the Oilers.
Finally, here’s one more instance of a nifty takeaway and zone exit by Draisaitl in the defensive zone against Sam Bennett, allowing Hyman to generate a zone entry the other way.

2. Chemistry with Vasily Podkolzin

In my experience, I’ve often found that a very underrated/undermentioned aspect in hockey analysis is line chemistry.
Historically, when centering his own line, Draisaitl has always performed best next to speedy, agile wingers who can forecheck and get him the puck. Prior to this season, Draisaitl’s best stretch of defensive hockey came in the second half of 2019-20 from January to March of 2020, when Kailer Yamamoto was on his right-wing; at the time, Yamamoto was a tenacious forechecker and excelled at forcing opposition turnovers and retrieving loose pucks. Draisaitl also had a great stretch of play next to Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele back in January.
This year, Draisaitl’s most common linemate at 5-on-5 has been Vasily Podkolzin. While Podkolzin has not been the most productive player, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been effective. Podkolzin has been a fantastic two-way complementary winger for Draisaitl, and has particularly been excellent off the forecheck using his size, speed and physicality.
One of the best ways to be a great defensive forward is to be a great forechecker. On average, the most dangerous shots come off the rush, and many rush shots originate from defensive zone breakouts. Consistently disrupting breakout attempts and hemming the puck into the offensive zone prevents the opposition from getting an opportunity to create those dangerous shots in the first place.
This season, Draisaitl and Podkolzin have been a lethal duo off the forecheck, consistently forcing turnovers and failed zone exits. Here’s a short video highlight compilation of their play off the forecheck:
Remember how I mentioned earlier how Draisaitl has been on-ice for the most opposition icings per 60 of his career? Draisaitl and Podkolzin’s forechecking is a big reason why. It has often been a nightmare for opposition defenders to break out of their own end with control when playing against these two, and it’s easy to see how that has influenced Draisaitl’s defensive metrics.

3. Transition into a possession and cycle-oriented style of play

Particularly early on in his career, Draisaitl’s style of play at 5-on-5 was quite reliant on high-event end-to-end transition hockey. It led to some excellent, high-quality rush chances – but on both ends.
As mentioned earlier, Draisaitl was prone to gliding around the top of the defensive zone looking for a stretch pass to generate a chance the other way, while also often being one of the last forwards to recover back into his own end on opposition zone entry attempts; this caused the Oilers to be vulnerable to counterattacks off the rush with Draisaitl on-ice. Fortunately, Draisaitl gradually began moving away from that style of game in 2023-24, and has taken an even bigger step in that regard this season.
Instead, he has shifted into a more cycle-dominant game, relying on generating scoring opportunities through extended OZ possession. In comparison to 2018-19 and 2019-20, Draisaitl is generating slightly less dynamic rush chances at 5v5, but much more chances off the cycle, and he’s spending significantly more time in the offensive zone.
At 5v5, consistent puck possession is a great way to play defence. Think about it; the more time you spend in the offensive zone, the less time is spent in the defensive zone, which can often lead to fewer shots and goals against. One of the best ways to play defence is to simply limit the time you spend defending in the first place.
Here’s a video example:
This play begins with an Oilers faceoff win, leading to a shot by Darnell Nurse from the point, whose rebound is picked up by the Seattle skaters. As they attempt to move the puck up the ice the other way, an active Draisaitl shuts down the entry attempt in the neutral zone, and the Oilers go back the other way. From there, all five skaters do an excellent job at maintaining OZ possession, and we can see Draisaitl’s elite puck protection and passing skills on display.
Eventually, the Oilers may not have ended up creating a goal or a quality chance, but Draisaitl’s line just forced Utah’s top line to spend nearly a full minute in their own end.
In 2018-19, the Oilers controlled 48 percent of the 5v5 shot attempts with Draisaitl on-ice. This season, it’s at 60 percent. Per NHL EDGE, Draisaitl has spent over 45 percent of his even-strength TOI in the offensive zone in 2024-25, and as a result, he has spent 37 percent of his TOI in the defensive zone, less than (i.e. better than) 94 percent of skaters in the NHL.
Sometimes, players have had to sacrifice some offence in order to improve their defensive game. What makes Draisaitl’s defensive progression so impressive is that he has managed to change his style of game in such a way that’s allowed him to improve defensively and build on his already-elite offensive play.

Final Thoughts

It’s not too often to see an NHL player sign a massive contract and proceed to have a career season. And yet, Leon Draisaitl has now managed to do it twice.
Even despite his defensive results in the past, Draisaitl’s elite offence was sufficient to remain one of the top players in the league. But now, he has managed to take that next step in his game this season, making huge strides in his defensive play.
Should we go as far to say he should be in consideration for the Selke Trophy this season? Well, most popular analytical models still place players like Aleksander Barkov and Anthony Cirelli higher defensively, and Draisaitl’s lack of penalty-killing will definitely lower his chances. That being said, there’s a strong case to be made that he’s deserving of some 5th-place votes.
Moving forward, as the Oilers aim for a Stanley Cup, maintaining these consistent habits in his defensive game will be crucial for Draisaitl.
“In life, every habit is extremely hard to get out of,” said Draisaitl. “I’ve established that bar in my defensive game, and now it’s a matter of developing and getting better at it, and keeping that habit.”
So, while Connor McDavid is the best player in the world, it should be evident that Leon Draisaitl has been Edmonton’s MVP in the 2024-25 season, and perhaps in the entire league. Draisaitl is truly evolving into a complete two-way player, and it’s exciting to see unfold.
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