Good morning, everyone, and a happy Thanksgiving Monday to all of you. As always, I&#8217;ve got a fresh mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever is on your mind. This week, we&#8217;re discussing the season opener debacle, dead cap space, Stuart Skinner expectations, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at <a class="text-accent" href="mailto:baggedmilk@oilersnation.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">baggedmilk@oilersnation.com</a> or on Twitter at <a class="text-accent" href="https://www.twitter.com/jsbmbaggedmilk" rel="noopener noreferrer">@jsbmbaggedmilk</a>, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.

<figure id="attachment_161840" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-161840" style="width: 1024px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-161840" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres.jpg 1806w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-161840" class="wp-caption-text">Oct 21, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) looks for a loose puck in front of Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) during the first period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>
1) Kevin asks &#8211; What do you make of two <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2024/10/09/instant-reaction-oilers-drop-season-opener-for-second-straight-year-lose-6-0-to-the-jets/">season-opener stinkers</a> in a row by what is now a veteran team? Is it much ado about nothing, or something more?
Jason Gregor:
Nothing really. The two games were 360+ days apart. Nothing connects them, other than they played poorly. Team just needs to be better.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I&#8217;m not that worried about it. We&#8217;ve also seen them get off to strong starts in the McDavid era. I&#8217;m not reading into it this at all.
Liam Horrobin:
The trend means nothing to me. There&#8217;s going to be games you get blown out, and unfortunately for the Oilers, it&#8217;s been the last two season openers.
Baggedmilk:
As much as the season opener was annoying, we&#8217;ve seen the team recover from slow starts before. I&#8217;m not worried about them at all. At least, not yet.
<figure id="attachment_161984" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-161984" style="width: 1024px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-161984" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-1024x683.jpg" alt="Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-161984" class="wp-caption-text">Oct 9, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard (30) replaces goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) after allowing 5 goal on 13 shots against the Winnipeg Jets at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>
2) Lane asks &#8211; It&#8217;s a new year for the Oilers but it&#8217;s hard to forget the slow start from last season. We&#8217;ve got <a href="https://oilersnation.com/schedule">11 games in October</a>. What&#8217;s an acceptable record for the team in your mind?
Jason Gregor:
Starting 0-3 is awful. So realistically now if they are 5-6 it would deemed decent. It will be hard for them to have a great record at the end of the month.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I think they can go 7-3-1 and that would be solid. There are some pretty easy spots on the schedule, including their next few games here, so they should be able to go on a little run at some point here.
Liam Horrobin:
At the worst, the Oilers should finish 6-3-1. I could see them slipping up during that back-to-back in Detroit and Columbus.
Baggedmilk:
Looking at the schedule and the opponents they&#8217;ll face, I think something along the lines of 7-3-1 or 6-3-2 would be the only record I&#8217;d be happy with. That obviously gets way harder now that they&#8217;ve lost the first three.
<figure id="attachment_161013" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-161013" style="width: 1024px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-161013" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-1024x683.jpg" alt="Los Angeles Kings Arthur Kaliyev" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-2048x1366.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-161013" class="wp-caption-text">Feb 26, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Los Angeles Kings forward Arthur Kaliyev (34) looks to make a pass from behind Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) during the first period at Rogers Place.</figcaption></figure>
3) Marc asks &#8211; Everyone knows there&#8217;s a ton of pressure on Stuart Skinner, but what would you see is a reasonable season for him provided that he&#8217;s able to stay healthy?
Jason Gregor:
Same as last season. <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2024/10/10/relax-oilers-fans-stuart-skinner-will-be-fine/">I outlined last week how Skinner was very good under Knoblauch</a>.
Skinner ranked first in wins with 34. He was eighth in Sv% at .912. Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Linus Ullmark were tied for fifth at .913Sv%. Bobrovsky was second at .917sv%. Skinner was fifth in GAA at 2.46. He also was 7th in save percentage differential courtesy of Clear Sight Analytics.
He has the ability to be in the top-10 in those categories again this season. He needs to play up to his potential just like the entire team who are all struggling at this point.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I think if he can play 55+ games and have a save percentage somewhere around .910 then Oilers fans should be thrilled. I think his ceiling is even higher than that, but I think .910 is a solid bar to set for a guy heading into his third NHL season.
Liam Horrobin:
If he plays between 52 to 56 games and finishes with a 0.905SV% or higher that&#8217;d be solid. I think Skinner is a great goaltender but, with the Oilers blueline, there&#8217;s going to be nights his numbers won&#8217;t look good. 905 is a good target and around league average.
Baggedmilk:
I&#8217;m going to say he gets 50+ starts and finishes with a .914 save%. If he can do that, I think a lot of people change their tune on how good Stuart Skinner can be.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-73829" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/banknotes-cash-deal-164652.jpg" alt="Cash Money" width="900" height="600" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/banknotes-cash-deal-164652.jpg 900w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/banknotes-cash-deal-164652-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/banknotes-cash-deal-164652-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" />
4) Ed M. asks &#8211; The Oilers are currently icing a team well below the cap limit.
Bonus carryover of about $3.55M. Buyout penalties of about $3.1M give us $6.65M.Kane on LTIR adds $5.12m and gets us up to $11.87 million of money spent that is not on the ice.
Is expecting a team with this much dead cap to be a contender is realistic?
Jason Gregor:
It isn’t ideal, no doubt. Kane’s LTIR money will either be used to acquire a player before the deadline, or he will return for the playoffs. I see your point about not using it now, and we’ll see if that strategy pays off as they try to accrue more cap space.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
Yes. Plenty of teams are also dealing with dead money and the Oilers are a contender because they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Past management groups have made some mistakes, that&#8217;s obvious, but it&#8217;s on this current group to find value deals and keep the roster competitive even with the dead money and they&#8217;ve done that.
Liam Horrobin:
It&#8217;s definitely not good but they&#8217;re also underpaying Evan Bouchard, Jeff Skinner and Stuart Skinner so it balances out. Plus, last season they had the dead money from Milan Lucic, James Neal and Jack Campbell and still lost in Game 7 of the Cup Final.
Baggedmilk:
It&#8217;s not ideal to have this much dead cap space, but it&#8217;s certainly not a unique problem the Oilers are facing. That said, it&#8217;s hard to look at that number and not shake your head.
<figure id="attachment_143663" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-143663" style="width: 1024px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-143663" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey-1024x603.jpg" alt="Leon Draisaitl photoshop" width="1024" height="603" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey-1024x603.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey-300x177.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey-768x452.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey-1536x904.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey.jpg 2000w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-143663" class="wp-caption-text">Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk</figcaption></figure>
5) Brian asks &#8211; It&#8217;s Thanksgiving weekend, and I want to know everyone&#8217;s favourite Thanksgiving dish and which one you would ban from the table?
Jason Gregor:
Favourite it pumpkin pie with real whip cream. None of that canned, processed garbage.
I would ban stuffing. I’ve never liked it.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I love stuffing. I love mashed potatoes. I love a good piece of dark meat. I hate cranberry sauce.
Liam Horrobin:
I stand with every item on the Thanksgiving table because I am thankful. 😉
Baggedmilk:
I&#8217;m all about the stuffing, potatoes, and turkey. My family&#8217;s Thanksgiving dinner is actually happening tonight and I couldn&#8217;t be more excited about it. That said, get the brussel sprouts away from me.
<h2>PRESENTED BY STAR MECHANICAL</h2>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-146181" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Article-2-SME.png" alt="" width="728" height="404" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Article-2-SME.png 728w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Article-2-SME-300x166.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" />
Star Mechanical is one of Edmonton’s biggest locally owned and operated plumbing and heating businesses. They have been working within the community for over 20 years, and many of the homes built in Edmonton over the last two decades have had their plumbing and heating systems installed by Star Mechanical.  Visit them at <a href="http://starmechanical.ca/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://starmechanical.ca&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1707492487512000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2mVs3WUkp8iUCZ0kJRe9lJ">starmechanical.ca</a> to schedule an appointment and let them help keep your home running smoothly.

Good morning, everyone, and a happy Thanksgiving Monday to all of you. As always, I've got a fresh mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever is on your mind. This week, we're discussing the season opener debacle, dead cap space, Stuart Skinner expectations, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at <a class="text-accent" href="mailto:baggedmilk@oilersnation.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">baggedmilk@oilersnation.com</a> or on Twitter at <a class="text-accent" href="https://www.twitter.com/jsbmbaggedmilk" rel="noopener noreferrer">@jsbmbaggedmilk</a>, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.



[caption id="attachment_161840" align="alignnone" width="1024"]<img class="size-large wp-image-161840" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_21707563_168383996_lowres-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" /> Oct 21, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) looks for a loose puck in front of Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) during the first period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]

1) Kevin asks - What do you make of two <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2024/10/09/instant-reaction-oilers-drop-season-opener-for-second-straight-year-lose-6-0-to-the-jets/">season-opener stinkers</a> in a row by what is now a veteran team? Is it much ado about nothing, or something more?

Jason Gregor:

Nothing really. The two games were 360+ days apart. Nothing connects them, other than they played poorly. Team just needs to be better.

Tyler Yaremchuk:

I'm not that worried about it. We've also seen them get off to strong starts in the McDavid era. I'm not reading into it this at all.

Liam Horrobin:

The trend means nothing to me. There's going to be games you get blown out, and unfortunately for the Oilers, it's been the last two season openers.

Baggedmilk:

As much as the season opener was annoying, we've seen the team recover from slow starts before. I'm not worried about them at all. At least, not yet.

[caption id="attachment_161984" align="alignnone" width="1024"]<img class="size-large wp-image-161984" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/USATSI_24450225-1024x683.jpg" alt="Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner" width="1024" height="683" /> Oct 9, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard (30) replaces goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) after allowing 5 goal on 13 shots against the Winnipeg Jets at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images[/caption]

2) Lane asks - It's a new year for the Oilers but it's hard to forget the slow start from last season. We've got <a href="https://oilersnation.com/schedule">11 games in October</a>. What's an acceptable record for the team in your mind?

Jason Gregor:

Starting 0-3 is awful. So realistically now if they are 5-6 it would deemed decent. It will be hard for them to have a great record at the end of the month.

Tyler Yaremchuk:

I think they can go 7-3-1 and that would be solid. There are some pretty easy spots on the schedule, including their next few games here, so they should be able to go on a little run at some point here.

Liam Horrobin:

At the worst, the Oilers should finish 6-3-1. I could see them slipping up during that back-to-back in Detroit and Columbus.

Baggedmilk:

Looking at the schedule and the opponents they'll face, I think something along the lines of 7-3-1 or 6-3-2 would be the only record I'd be happy with. That obviously gets way harder now that they've lost the first three.

[caption id="attachment_161013" align="alignnone" width="1024"]<img class="size-large wp-image-161013" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/USATSI_22628287-1024x683.jpg" alt="Los Angeles Kings Arthur Kaliyev" width="1024" height="683" /> Feb 26, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Los Angeles Kings forward Arthur Kaliyev (34) looks to make a pass from behind Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) during the first period at Rogers Place.[/caption]

3) Marc asks - Everyone knows there's a ton of pressure on Stuart Skinner, but what would you see is a reasonable season for him provided that he's able to stay healthy?

Jason Gregor:
Same as last season. <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2024/10/10/relax-oilers-fans-stuart-skinner-will-be-fine/">I outlined last week how Skinner was very good under Knoblauch</a>.
Skinner ranked first in wins with 34. He was eighth in Sv% at .912. Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Linus Ullmark were tied for fifth at .913Sv%. Bobrovsky was second at .917sv%. Skinner was fifth in GAA at 2.46. He also was 7th in save percentage differential courtesy of Clear Sight Analytics.
He has the ability to be in the top-10 in those categories again this season. He needs to play up to his potential just like the entire team who are all struggling at this point.

Tyler Yaremchuk:

I think if he can play 55+ games and have a save percentage somewhere around .910 then Oilers fans should be thrilled. I think his ceiling is even higher than that, but I think .910 is a solid bar to set for a guy heading into his third NHL season.

Liam Horrobin:

If he plays between 52 to 56 games and finishes with a 0.905SV% or higher that'd be solid. I think Skinner is a great goaltender but, with the Oilers blueline, there's going to be nights his numbers won't look good. 905 is a good target and around league average.

Baggedmilk:

I'm going to say he gets 50+ starts and finishes with a .914 save%. If he can do that, I think a lot of people change their tune on how good Stuart Skinner can be.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-73829" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/banknotes-cash-deal-164652.jpg" alt="Cash Money" width="900" height="600" />

4) Ed M. asks - The Oilers are currently icing a team well below the cap limit.

Bonus carryover of about $3.55M. Buyout penalties of about $3.1M give us $6.65M.Kane on LTIR adds $5.12m and gets us up to $11.87 million of money spent that is not on the ice.

Is expecting a team with this much dead cap to be a contender is realistic?

Jason Gregor:

It isn’t ideal, no doubt. Kane’s LTIR money will either be used to acquire a player before the deadline, or he will return for the playoffs. I see your point about not using it now, and we’ll see if that strategy pays off as they try to accrue more cap space.

Tyler Yaremchuk:

Yes. Plenty of teams are also dealing with dead money and the Oilers are a contender because they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Past management groups have made some mistakes, that's obvious, but it's on this current group to find value deals and keep the roster competitive even with the dead money and they've done that.

Liam Horrobin:

It's definitely not good but they're also underpaying Evan Bouchard, Jeff Skinner and Stuart Skinner so it balances out. Plus, last season they had the dead money from Milan Lucic, James Neal and Jack Campbell and still lost in Game 7 of the Cup Final.

Baggedmilk:

It's not ideal to have this much dead cap space, but it's certainly not a unique problem the Oilers are facing. That said, it's hard to look at that number and not shake your head.

[caption id="attachment_143663" align="alignnone" width="1024"]<img class="size-large wp-image-143663" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GDB-Leon-Draisaitl-turkey-1024x603.jpg" alt="Leon Draisaitl photoshop" width="1024" height="603" /> Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk[/caption]

5) Brian asks - It's Thanksgiving weekend, and I want to know everyone's favourite Thanksgiving dish and which one you would ban from the table?

Jason Gregor:
Favourite it pumpkin pie with real whip cream. None of that canned, processed garbage.
I would ban stuffing. I’ve never liked it.
Tyler Yaremchuk:

I love stuffing. I love mashed potatoes. I love a good piece of dark meat. I hate cranberry sauce.

Liam Horrobin:

I stand with every item on the Thanksgiving table because I am thankful. ;)

Baggedmilk:

I'm all about the stuffing, potatoes, and turkey. My family's Thanksgiving dinner is actually happening tonight and I couldn't be more excited about it. That said, get the brussel sprouts away from me.
<h2>PRESENTED BY STAR MECHANICAL</h2>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-146181" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Article-2-SME.png" alt="" width="728" height="404" />

Star Mechanical is one of Edmonton’s biggest locally owned and operated plumbing and heating businesses. They have been working within the community for over 20 years, and many of the homes built in Edmonton over the last two decades have had their plumbing and heating systems installed by Star Mechanical.  Visit them at <a href="http://starmechanical.ca/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://starmechanical.ca&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1707492487512000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2mVs3WUkp8iUCZ0kJRe9lJ">starmechanical.ca</a> to schedule an appointment and let them help keep your home running smoothly.

Monday Mailbag – Do the Oilers have too much dead cap space to be true Stanley Cup contenders?

Recent articles from baggedmilk

Breaking News