Good morning, everyone, and a happy Monday to all of you. I’ve got a brand new mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever is on your mind. This week, we’re discussing Stanley Cup hangovers, the secondary scoring issues, and much more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.
Jun 24, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers look on after the defeat against Florida Panthers in game seven of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena.
1) Paul asks – How much stock do you put into the idea that’s been floated around that the Oilers are having a hard time getting into this 2024-25 season, given how close they were to winning it all back in June? Is the Stanley Cup Final hangover real?
Jason Gregor:
I don’t buy it much past the first few weeks of the season. They have created loads of chances, but couldn’t score. I don’t see why a hangover would cause them to outshoot and outchance teams, but not finish.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I think it might be. Not that they aren’t putting in effort or anything, but I think there might have been a few more nights where they were looking past the task at hand. I really do think they’ll snap out of it, but I do think it’s a real thing.
Liam Horrobin:
I don’t doubt that some regular season nights can be underwhelming for teams with high aspirations but this team has too high of standards for themselves to be lacklustre for this long. Everything is going poorly right now but once they get rolling then we’ll all forget about how poor they were earlier in the year.
Baggedmilk:
I don’t know if it’s real or not, but I also doubt the Oilers aren’t trying as hard as they could because they’re still bummed out. That said, I can absolutely understand the players wanting to skip the regular season and get right back to the playoffs, but the problem is that we’ve still got 60 games left before we can do that.
Sep 23, 2024; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Jeff Skinner (53) controls the puck against the Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
2) Clay asks – Are the Oilers a bit of luck away from the floodgates opening on their scoring woes, or is the team getting too old?
Jason Gregor:
Scoring six vs. the Rangers will help. Podkolzin has already scored more goals in the second quarter (1 game) than he did in the first quarter of the season (21 games). I suspect he will be much more relaxed after scoring his first goal since March 2023. I’d confidently say Arvidsson, Henrique, Hyman and RNH are going to combine for more than nine goals in the second quarter of the season. I don’t feel age is the issue at all, considering how many scoring chances they are creating.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
They need some good luck and some good goaltending. I’m very confident that both of those things are going to come at some point and when they do, we’ll get a very long run of wins.
Liam Horrobin:
This team isn’t that old they just have Corey Perry and Derek Ryan on their roster keeping the age higher. The core group of players range from 32 to 25, which is standard around the NHL. They’re just not scoring on their chances right now but that will come because they’re simply too talented to keep missing.
Baggedmilk:
These guys need some confidence more than anything. And if a lucky bounce or two for goals is what brings that back to them then I’m all for it. Brains are weird, and it would be great if the Hockey Gords could be generous with a few PDO heaters.
3) Benjamin asks – The Oilers have 12 games between now and the Christmas break. What record do you need to see from them over this stretch?
Jason Gregor:
They start with BTB games in UTA and COL this weekend and end with BTB games hosting SJ and OTT on the 21st and 22nd of Dec and seven of the 12 are on home ice. I see Edmonton going 7-4-1. Maybe 8-3-1.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
I would love to see something like 8-3-1 but I think getting getting at least 15 points should be the standard. They have some very soft spots that I think they should take advantage of.
Liam Horrobin:
Including the win on Saturday versus the New York Rangers, I’d like to see them win at least eight games. They play a ton at home and should have some easy nights when Columbus, Ottawa and San Jose come to Rogers Place. There’s tough games like Vegas, Florida and Tampa but you play them at home so they should be able to win there too.
Baggedmilk:
They need to put together at least two three-game win streaks or longer in that stretch. I don’t know what the record has to be, but we can’t keep doing this win-one-lose-one-win-two-lose-two cycle anymore. I want some winning streaks, and there are beatable teams on the schedule.
Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
4) Ed M. asks – From day one Ken Holland was some people’s public enemy No.1. He was too old, did not say “analytics” enough, and some wondered why didn’t the Oil hire the next Kyle Dubas? But he built a team that was one game from winning the Stanley Cup. Jeff Jackson significantly changed this team over the summer, and so far, the results are disappointing. Stan Bowman was not with the organization when most of the decisions were made. My question is, did JJ mess up a good thing?
Jason Gregor:
I’d argue Podkolzin can replace Holloway. Losing Broberg hurt them, no question, but I believe he wanted out regardless of who was the GM. It is too early to determine if the Savoie for McLeod trade will help them in the long run, but it was made to free up cap space and re-sign Adam Henrique. I don’t know if we can say he messed up a good thing, just yet. I don’t see how you can blame Jackson for the Oilers inability to finish their chances in the first quarter. I think we all agree the playoff roster was always going to look different than the start of season roster, and Jackson was a short-term place holder.
It is still too early to say, with any real accuracy, how the moves will play out. The slow start for some individual hasn’t helped Jackson’s case, but it depends what you are comparing this first quarter to? McLeod had zero goal in the first quarter last year. Foegele had three. Holloway had one. This group has replaced those goals, but will they pick up their scoring like McLeod, Foegele and Holloway did during the season. Time will tell.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
No. Almost everyone wanted Ceci gone, almost everyone was tired of Foegele being inconsistent, and I’m pretty sure we all loved the McLeod trade when it happened. Be patient, let’s see how we feel about the changes in the new year.
Liam Horrobin:
It’s a good and interesting question. In the moment, everything seemed great but looking back maybe the lack of experience did damage the Oilers slightly. Not resigning Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg is the part that sucks the most, especially when they brought back Mattias Janmark and Corey Perry for too much. I don’t think having new faces around was such a bad idea – Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele struggled for large portions of the playoffs so bringing in Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson was a good plan. Vincent Descharnais and Cody Ceci also didn’t play well in the postseason so testing out a cheaper player with more upside in Ty Emberson is a good strategy too. Not replacing Ceci with another top four defenceman was a good idea though. Overall, things don’t seem positive for Jackson but I believe it’ll all work out.
Baggedmilk:
I still like the Ceci trade because I think Ty Emberson is just now settling into his new role with the Oilers. When it comes to a guy like Warren Foegele, I would have loved to have him back but the money he got in LA makes that a tough sell because we know where his ceiling is. The moves that hurt more are the two players the Oilers lost via the offersheet, and I wish they would have done more to prioritize those two players early.
Nov 16, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) is helped off the ice after suffering an apparent injury on a bodycheck from Toronto Maple Leafs forward Ryan Reaves (not shown) in the second period at Scotiabank Arena.
5) Michael asks – We saw a five game suspension for Reaves… but that doesn’t benefit the injured player’s team. What are your thoughts that when a player is suspended, the equivalent salary of those games lost by the suspended player is removed from his team’s salary cap and added to the other team’s salary cap? Then the team does receive something, token as it is, of value when losing a player to injury. This also adds some accountability to teams that employ people like Reaves.
Jason Gregor:
Too complicated and means some teams will end up with higher cap, so no chance NHL does it. No need for it to be honest. Injuries are part of the game and Reaves has now been suspended four times for a total of 11 games in his 15-year career. I wouldn’t toss out “people like Reaves” as though he is some sort of historical thug who cheapshots players. It was a hard hit, and if he shoulder in three inches lower then it is clean. In a quick paced game, and guys who deliver hard hits might miss judge the odd one.
Tyler Yaremchuk:
No. Suspensions are to deter players from doing dangerous things (they lose salary). It’s called the Department of Player Safety not the Department of Competitive Balance.
Liam Horrobin:
I like the idea! I don’t see the NHL ever going for something like this though. The accountability to those teams signing players like Reaves comes on the ice when he’s playing poorly. Plus, if a high end player with a big salary cap received the suspension then that gives the other team a massive advantage.
Baggedmilk:
Five games is a pretty solid hit to the player’s wallet, but I agree that making them 10-gamers as a standard would make guys think twice for sure. I don’t think we need to overcomplicate the process, but that the punishments should be more significant than they are.
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