Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Sunday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers.
Oilers vs. Islanders Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -157
- New York Rangers Moneyline: +142
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+161), Rangers +1.5 (-183)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -104, Under -108)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (38-24 SU, 23-43 ATS, 29-36-1 O/U)
Edmonton earned a hard-fought 2-1 overtime win against the Islanders on Friday, just as expected. The Oilers badly needed the victory after losing the first two games of their Eastern Conference road trip. A win over a tired Rangers team would let them take four of eight possible points home.
Leon Draisaitl scored both of Edmonton’s goals, reaching the 100-point mark for the fourth consecutive season and the sixth time in the last seven years. He is also one goal away from hitting the 50-goal mark for the fourth time in his career. Connor McDavid extended his point streak to 10 games with an assist.
However, while Draisaitl and McDavid continue to produce, Edmonton’s depth scoring remains an issue, which is a major reason the team is now just one point ahead of the Los Angeles Kings in the Pacific Division. Another concern is goaltending, which has been below league average. The Oilers rank sixth in expected goals against but 19th in goals against and 18th in save percentage year-to-date.
Goaltender Calvin Pickard rebounded in his first start since March 4, making 25 saves in the win and capping off his strong performance with an assist on Draisaitl’s overtime winner. However, Stuart Skinner will likely be back in net on Sunday and has won just four of his last 14 starts.
The Oilers dominated the Rangers on home ice earlier this season, winning 6-2 on Nov. 23. Edmonton has won two in a row and seven of its last 10 meetings against New York. The Oilers have also won four of their last five trips to Madison Square Garden.
Handicapping the Rangers (33-34 SU, 30-37 ATS, 30-35-2 O/U)
New York won its second game in a row on Saturday, shutting out the Columbus Blue Jackets to close out its three-game road trip. The Rangers begin a four-game homestand against Canadian teams on Sunday. The Rangers moved into the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with their win over the Blue Jackets on Saturday.
According to Evolving Hockey, New York ranks 28th in expected goals percentage and 20th in shot attempt percentage at even strength since Feb. 1. Offensively, the Rangers have been among the top 10 teams at even strength, but they have converted just 16.4 percent of their power-play opportunities during this stretch.
Defensively, New York ranks 22nd in goals against per 60 minutes since the start of February, but the team would likely be worse off if not for goaltenders Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick. The Rangers rank 20th in shot attempts against and 25th in expected goals against at even strength since Feb. 1.
Shesterkin was in goal for New York’s shutout win on Saturday, his fifth of the season, but with this being the second half of a back-to-back, Quick will likely get the start against the Oilers. Quick hasn’t been bad this season, but he also hasn’t provided a significant boost. The 39-year-old is 9-6-2 with a .896 save percentage and a 3.14 goals against average. He ranks 54th in goals saved above expected, indicating he has performed slightly below average based on shot quality.
The Rangers are 16-14-3 this season, and 4-6 straight up in their last 10 games at MSG. Quick allowed seven goals on 28 shots in his last home start against the Blue Jackets on March 9.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Rangers
Total – First Period – Over 1.5 Goals (-133) at Pinnacle
Since Jan. 1, New York has been the highest-scoring team in the first period, while Edmonton has allowed the most first-period goals. However, the Oilers are tied for fifth in first-period goals for, and the Rangers rank sixth-worst defensively in the opening frame. Given Edmonton’s rest advantage and the goalie matchup, this is a good spot to bet on the first-period total going over.
