<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Edmonton Oilers are favored as they kick off a three-game Eastern Conference road trip in Toronto against the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/what-the-oilers-can-expect-from-the-maple-leafs-tonight">Maple Leafs</a>. The two teams have split the season series in each of the last two seasons, but Toronto is 7-3 versus Edmonton in the last 10 meetings.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Odds</span></h2>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -140</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline: +120</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+180), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225)</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.</span></i></p>
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<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Maple Leafs (10-6-2 SU, 12-6 ATS, 6-10-2 O/U)</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Despite a 4-1 record this season without Matthews (and 30-20-2 all-time), the Maple Leafs are showing troubling trends. Over their last six games, they rank 29th in shot differential, 30th in shot attempt differential, and 26th in expected goals differential at five-on-five since Nov. 3. <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/report-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-will-not-play-vs-oilers">Matthews, who remains day-to-day with an undisclosed upper-body injury, will miss his sixth straight game on Saturday</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Toronto had a strong showing against the Capitals in the second half of a back-to-back after being shut out by the Senators, but their even-strength scoring has been a problem. After scoring two or more even-strength goals in nine of their first 12 games, the Leafs have struggled without Matthews, who leads the league in even-strength goals since his debut.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">More than half of Toronto’s goals without Matthews have come on the power play. John Tavares has four goals in five games, while Mitch Marner and William Nylander have three each. Beyond that, the rest of the roster has managed just five goals over that span—a concerning lack of depth scoring.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">At even strength, the Leafs are generating only 23 shots per 60 minutes without Matthews, down from 32 with him. William Nylander and Bobby McMann have been the most active shooters, combining for 30 even-strength shots in the last five games, while Marner has just three. Toronto might find success against Edmonton’s league-worst penalty kill, but their five-on-five production needs to improve.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Oilers (9-8 SU, 5-12 ATS, 5-11-1 O/U)</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton enters Saturday’s game with a winning record for the first time this season, following an overtime win against Nashville on Thursday. This marks their first three-game winning streak of the 2024-25 campaign. While it might seem strange for the Oilers to be road favorites in Toronto, it highlights how the betting market prioritizes underlying metrics over wins and losses at this stage—and most of those metrics favor Edmonton.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Let’s start with star power. Only the most biased fan would pick Marner and Nylander over <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/12-times-oilers-connor-mcdavid-truly-dominated-with-5-points-or-more-in-a-game">Connor McDavid</a> and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid, fresh off becoming the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/the-day-after-17-0-connor-mcdavid-soaks-up-1000th-point-with-edmonton-oilers-teammates-whove-been-there-since-the-beginning">fourth-fastest player to score 1,000 points</a>, has 11 goals and 24 assists in 23 career games versus Toronto, including 10 points over his last four.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">At five-on-five, the Oilers rank second in shot attempts percentage and third in expected goals percentage, while Toronto ranks 19th and 15th in those categories. However, the Leafs hold the edge on special teams and in net. According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner ranks 63rd out of 69 goaltenders in goals saved above expected, while Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz ranks third.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Oilers’ power play is also showing signs of life. After scoring just one power-play goal in their first six games, they’ve tallied six in their last 11. While their 20.7 percent success rate during that span is below their usual 30 percent mark, it’s a step in the right direction. That said, Toronto’s sixth-ranked penalty kill will be a challenge. Still, Edmonton has nearly doubled Toronto’s even-strength goal production over the last handful of games, giving them a significant edge at five-on-five.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Best Bet for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs</span></h2>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Regulation Result: Tie (+333) at Sports Interaction</span></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Both teams have trended heavily to the under this season, and they are 4-4-2 to the under in the last 10 meetings. As a result, oddsmakers have set the total at six goals, instead of six and a half or seven. In other words, this should be a tight game, and there’s a decent chance it could end up in overtime like the last couple of games have for the Oilers.</span></p>
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<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+100) at Sports Interaction</span></h3>
<p>After a milestone night on Thursday, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/i-never-bet-against-connor-mcdavid-teammates-believe-oilers-captain-can-score-2000-nhl-points">McDavid</a> could experience a letdown, but it&#8217;s unlikely given the circumstances. He had 32 shots in his first 11 games but has nearly doubled that with 20 shots in his last 3 games. McDavid has recorded four or more shots in 8 of 14 games, including 3 of 5 road games. I believe the odds haven&#8217;t fully adjusted for this prop.</p>


<span style="font-weight: 400;">The Edmonton Oilers are favored as they kick off a three-game Eastern Conference road trip in Toronto against the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/what-the-oilers-can-expect-from-the-maple-leafs-tonight">Maple Leafs</a>. The two teams have split the season series in each of the last two seasons, but Toronto is 7-3 versus Edmonton in the last 10 meetings.</span>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Odds</span></h2>
<ul>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -140</span></li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline: +120</span></li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+180), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225)</span></li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)</span></li>
</ul>
<i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.</span></i>
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<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Maple Leafs (10-6-2 SU, 12-6 ATS, 6-10-2 O/U)</span></h2>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">Despite a 4-1 record this season without Matthews (and 30-20-2 all-time), the Maple Leafs are showing troubling trends. Over their last six games, they rank 29th in shot differential, 30th in shot attempt differential, and 26th in expected goals differential at five-on-five since Nov. 3. <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/report-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-will-not-play-vs-oilers">Matthews, who remains day-to-day with an undisclosed upper-body injury, will miss his sixth straight game on Saturday</a>.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">Toronto had a strong showing against the Capitals in the second half of a back-to-back after being shut out by the Senators, but their even-strength scoring has been a problem. After scoring two or more even-strength goals in nine of their first 12 games, the Leafs have struggled without Matthews, who leads the league in even-strength goals since his debut.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">More than half of Toronto’s goals without Matthews have come on the power play. John Tavares has four goals in five games, while Mitch Marner and William Nylander have three each. Beyond that, the rest of the roster has managed just five goals over that span—a concerning lack of depth scoring.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">At even strength, the Leafs are generating only 23 shots per 60 minutes without Matthews, down from 32 with him. William Nylander and Bobby McMann have been the most active shooters, combining for 30 even-strength shots in the last five games, while Marner has just three. Toronto might find success against Edmonton’s league-worst penalty kill, but their five-on-five production needs to improve.</span>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Oilers (9-8 SU, 5-12 ATS, 5-11-1 O/U)</span></h2>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton enters Saturday’s game with a winning record for the first time this season, following an overtime win against Nashville on Thursday. This marks their first three-game winning streak of the 2024-25 campaign. While it might seem strange for the Oilers to be road favorites in Toronto, it highlights how the betting market prioritizes underlying metrics over wins and losses at this stage—and most of those metrics favor Edmonton.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">Let’s start with star power. Only the most biased fan would pick Marner and Nylander over <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/12-times-oilers-connor-mcdavid-truly-dominated-with-5-points-or-more-in-a-game">Connor McDavid</a> and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid, fresh off becoming the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/the-day-after-17-0-connor-mcdavid-soaks-up-1000th-point-with-edmonton-oilers-teammates-whove-been-there-since-the-beginning">fourth-fastest player to score 1,000 points</a>, has 11 goals and 24 assists in 23 career games versus Toronto, including 10 points over his last four.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">At five-on-five, the Oilers rank second in shot attempts percentage and third in expected goals percentage, while Toronto ranks 19th and 15th in those categories. However, the Leafs hold the edge on special teams and in net. According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner ranks 63rd out of 69 goaltenders in goals saved above expected, while Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz ranks third.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">The Oilers’ power play is also showing signs of life. After scoring just one power-play goal in their first six games, they’ve tallied six in their last 11. While their 20.7 percent success rate during that span is below their usual 30 percent mark, it’s a step in the right direction. That said, Toronto’s sixth-ranked penalty kill will be a challenge. Still, Edmonton has nearly doubled Toronto’s even-strength goal production over the last handful of games, giving them a significant edge at five-on-five.</span>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Best Bet for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs</span></h2>
<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Regulation Result: Tie (+333) at Sports Interaction</span></h3>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">Both teams have trended heavily to the under this season, and they are 4-4-2 to the under in the last 10 meetings. As a result, oddsmakers have set the total at six goals, instead of six and a half or seven. In other words, this should be a tight game, and there’s a decent chance it could end up in overtime like the last couple of games have for the Oilers.</span>
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<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+100) at Sports Interaction</span></h3>
After a milestone night on Thursday, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/i-never-bet-against-connor-mcdavid-teammates-believe-oilers-captain-can-score-2000-nhl-points">McDavid</a> could experience a letdown, but it's unlikely given the circumstances. He had 32 shots in his first 11 games but has nearly doubled that with 20 shots in his last 3 games. McDavid has recorded four or more shots in 8 of 14 games, including 3 of 5 road games. I believe the odds haven't fully adjusted for this prop.

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