<p>Auston Matthews is expected to miss his <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/report-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-will-not-play-vs-oilers">sixth consecutive game due to an upper-body injury</a>, but there still should be plenty of fireworks in a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m Arun Srinivasan, the managing editor at <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/">The Leafs Nation</a> and I&#8217;m a member of the Professional Hockey Writers&#8217; Association covering the Toronto Maple Leafs! Zach Laing is previewing the Oilers for us, and what to expect from the team. Connor McDavid reaching 1,000 points this early in his career is a remarkable accomplishment and it wasn&#8217;t that long ago that we got to watch him as a phenom in Toronto&#8217;s minor hockey circuit.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s what the Oilers can expect from the Maple Leafs tonight:</p>
<p></p>
<h2>Marner, Nylander, and Tavares elevated their games with Matthews out</h2>
<p>It&#8217;s a strange phenomenon, but the Maple Leafs are 4-1-0 during Matthews&#8217; most recent absence, and have historically responded well without the reigning Rocket Richard winner in the lineup. Mitch Marner has recorded three goals and eight points during this five-game span, William Nylander is tied for the NHL goal-scoring lead at the time of this filing, while John Tavares is using his hockey intelligence and power game to push himself constantly into high-danger areas.</p>
<p>Although Toronto&#8217;s best players — along with Matthew Knies, who has emerged as a true breakout star — the 5-on-5 offence has largely dried up and it&#8217;s becoming a cause for concern. Toronto led the NHL in 5-on-5 goals last season, but it ranks 16th prior to Friday&#8217;s game with 33 tallies at 5-on-5, and it&#8217;s been a top-heavy production. Nylander, Knies, Tavares and Bobby McMann are responsible for 20 of Toronto&#8217;s 33 5-on-5 goals, and this doesn&#8217;t account for Marner&#8217;s two goals, or the two goals each from the injured Matthews and Max Pacioretty. There&#8217;s decent positional versatility throughout the lineup but ultimately, this has been a two-line team at even strength.</p>
<p>McMann&#8217;s elite speed has allowed him to function throughout the lineup, and he&#8217;s currently playing alongside Tavares and Nylander, where his speed and opportunism are optimized. Max Domi is in a career-worst offensive slump, and it&#8217;s possible the Leafs make an in-game adjustment to afford Nylander a few minutes at centre, while Domi could face less taxing assignments — whoever is tasked with guarding McDavid and picking him in the neutral zone is in for a long night, to say the least.</p>
<p>Toronto&#8217;s power play has been volcanic over the past two weeks, after stumbling to a 3-of-39 start, and is now clicking at a 20.9 percent success rate. This is in large part due to an emphasis on simplifying the game, getting pucks to the net, and using Knies&#8217; towering frame at the net-front, while Tavares hounds pucks in the slot and between the hashmarks, as opposed to looking for an optimal shot for Nylander at the top of the faceoff circle.</p>
<h2>McCabe and Tanev are functioning as a true shutdown pairing</h2>
<p>Chris Tanev has been as good as advertised in his homecoming season, and he&#8217;s formed a true shutdown pairing alongside Jake McCabe — although two sub-par games have seen their expected goals share drop from a stellar 60 percent to a 54.3 percent share. This accounts for the 24th-best share among defence pairings with over 100 minutes played via <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&amp;thruseason=20242025&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=100&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410">Natural Stat Trick</a> (we finally have meaningful samples to work with, hooray!) and while that&#8217;s not quite elite territory, they&#8217;ve been a stabilizing force for a Maple Leafs&#8217; defence corps working fluidly.</p>
<p>Tanev received the first look alongside Morgan Rielly, but Berube abandoned this pairing, opting for more balance among the top two groups. Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson present the Maple Leafs with an offensive-minded group that will take a few more risks, can log heavy minutes, while McCabe-Tanev are tasked with clean exits against superior offensive talent and displaying a nasty streak.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s the subtle communication between both players that has stood out — you can see Tanev pointing to McCabe throughout games, and he&#8217;s fortified his reputation as one of the NHL&#8217;s elite shot blockers. McCabe signed a five-year extension on October 30, and you could make the argument that he&#8217;s been the Maple Leafs&#8217; best defender overall throughout the month of November — although that would severely discount Rielly&#8217;s offensive contributions, so we&#8217;ll walk it back and position him as the No. 2. In any event, the Maple Leafs have four stellar defenders for the first time in the Auston Matthews era, while Conor Timmins has made himself indispensable on Toronto&#8217;s bottom pair.</p>
<h2>Stolarz has quietly supplanted Woll as Toronto&#8217;s No. 1 goalie</h2>
<p>Anthony Stolarz has been a revelation for the Maple Leafs, and while it&#8217;s unclear at the time of this filing who the starter will be, the towering ex-Panthers goalie is quickly becoming a fan favourite. Stolarz has a tendency to lose his equipment and rely on his massive frame to make stops, he&#8217;s displayed solid rebound control, and a calm, stoic demeanour on the ice. Stolarz and Joseph Woll were expected to work in tandem, but he&#8217;s quietly won the No. 1 role outright, and Toronto has the luxury of rolling out two solid starters — it&#8217;s just that Stolarz has been one of the NHL&#8217;s best goalies, while Woll has been a competent starter.</p>
<h2>Lineup news:</h2>
<p>Matthews is ruled out, Max Domi will be in the lineup, while it&#8217;ll be compelling to see whether Nick Robertson, Alex Steeves or Pontus Holmberg is the odd man out among Toronto&#8217;s forward corps.</p>
<p>Here is Saturday&#8217;s projected lineup:</p>
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<div class="c-message__message_blocks c-message__message_blocks--rich_text" data-qa="message-text">
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<div class="p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper--first">
<div class="p-rich_text_block" dir="auto">
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Bobby McMann-John Tavares-Mitch Marner</i><br />
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Matthew Knies-Max Domi-William Nylander</i><br />
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Pontus Holmberg-David Kampf-Nick Robertson</i></div>
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Connor Dewar-Steven Lorentz-Ryan Reaves</i></div>
<div></div>
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Morgan Rielly-Jani Hakanpaa</i><br />
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Jake McCabe-Chris Tanev</i><br />
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Conor Timmins</i></div>
<div></div>
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Anthony Stolarz (projected starter)</i><br />
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Joseph Woll</i></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="c-message_kit__reaction_bar c-reaction_bar c-reaction_bar--collapsed" role="group" data-qa="reaction_bar" aria-label="Reactions" data-stringify-ignore="true"></div>
<h2>Who to watch:</h2>
<p>Matthew Knies is using his speed, size, power and physicality to become one of the NHL&#8217;s real breakout stars. This profile, published on <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/how-matthew-knies-has-emerged-genuine-breakout-star-for-maple-leafs">November 1</a>, is a guide to what he&#8217;s done well. He&#8217;s drifting off his linemates to get to the net, he&#8217;s becoming an expert screener, he runs over opponents, and he needs to work on cutting down silly penalties away from the net which are the byproduct of aggression. Knies is just 22 years old, and is the bridge between the Maple Leafs&#8217; present and future.</p>
<h2>Ex-Oilers updates:</h2>
<p>There are no real ex-Oilers updates to record from this year&#8217;s groups, but McMann is the pride of Wainwright, Alberta and his ability to generate rush offence is electrifying to watch when he&#8217;s at his best. We&#8217;re looking forward to seeing Connor Brown, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott, all of whom had lengthy stints with the Maple Leafs before moving on to the next phases of their careers!</p>

Auston Matthews is expected to miss his <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/report-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-will-not-play-vs-oilers">sixth consecutive game due to an upper-body injury</a>, but there still should be plenty of fireworks in a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers.

I'm Arun Srinivasan, the managing editor at <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/">The Leafs Nation</a> and I'm a member of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association covering the Toronto Maple Leafs! Zach Laing is previewing the Oilers for us, and what to expect from the team. Connor McDavid reaching 1,000 points this early in his career is a remarkable accomplishment and it wasn't that long ago that we got to watch him as a phenom in Toronto's minor hockey circuit.

Here's what the Oilers can expect from the Maple Leafs tonight:


<h2>Marner, Nylander, and Tavares elevated their games with Matthews out</h2>
It's a strange phenomenon, but the Maple Leafs are 4-1-0 during Matthews' most recent absence, and have historically responded well without the reigning Rocket Richard winner in the lineup. Mitch Marner has recorded three goals and eight points during this five-game span, William Nylander is tied for the NHL goal-scoring lead at the time of this filing, while John Tavares is using his hockey intelligence and power game to push himself constantly into high-danger areas.

Although Toronto's best players — along with Matthew Knies, who has emerged as a true breakout star — the 5-on-5 offence has largely dried up and it's becoming a cause for concern. Toronto led the NHL in 5-on-5 goals last season, but it ranks 16th prior to Friday's game with 33 tallies at 5-on-5, and it's been a top-heavy production. Nylander, Knies, Tavares and Bobby McMann are responsible for 20 of Toronto's 33 5-on-5 goals, and this doesn't account for Marner's two goals, or the two goals each from the injured Matthews and Max Pacioretty. There's decent positional versatility throughout the lineup but ultimately, this has been a two-line team at even strength.

McMann's elite speed has allowed him to function throughout the lineup, and he's currently playing alongside Tavares and Nylander, where his speed and opportunism are optimized. Max Domi is in a career-worst offensive slump, and it's possible the Leafs make an in-game adjustment to afford Nylander a few minutes at centre, while Domi could face less taxing assignments — whoever is tasked with guarding McDavid and picking him in the neutral zone is in for a long night, to say the least.

Toronto's power play has been volcanic over the past two weeks, after stumbling to a 3-of-39 start, and is now clicking at a 20.9 percent success rate. This is in large part due to an emphasis on simplifying the game, getting pucks to the net, and using Knies' towering frame at the net-front, while Tavares hounds pucks in the slot and between the hashmarks, as opposed to looking for an optimal shot for Nylander at the top of the faceoff circle.
<h2>McCabe and Tanev are functioning as a true shutdown pairing</h2>
Chris Tanev has been as good as advertised in his homecoming season, and he's formed a true shutdown pairing alongside Jake McCabe — although two sub-par games have seen their expected goals share drop from a stellar 60 percent to a 54.3 percent share. This accounts for the 24th-best share among defence pairings with over 100 minutes played via <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&amp;thruseason=20242025&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=ALL&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=100&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410">Natural Stat Trick</a> (we finally have meaningful samples to work with, hooray!) and while that's not quite elite territory, they've been a stabilizing force for a Maple Leafs' defence corps working fluidly.

Tanev received the first look alongside Morgan Rielly, but Berube abandoned this pairing, opting for more balance among the top two groups. Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson present the Maple Leafs with an offensive-minded group that will take a few more risks, can log heavy minutes, while McCabe-Tanev are tasked with clean exits against superior offensive talent and displaying a nasty streak.

It's the subtle communication between both players that has stood out — you can see Tanev pointing to McCabe throughout games, and he's fortified his reputation as one of the NHL's elite shot blockers. McCabe signed a five-year extension on October 30, and you could make the argument that he's been the Maple Leafs' best defender overall throughout the month of November — although that would severely discount Rielly's offensive contributions, so we'll walk it back and position him as the No. 2. In any event, the Maple Leafs have four stellar defenders for the first time in the Auston Matthews era, while Conor Timmins has made himself indispensable on Toronto's bottom pair.
<h2>Stolarz has quietly supplanted Woll as Toronto's No. 1 goalie</h2>
Anthony Stolarz has been a revelation for the Maple Leafs, and while it's unclear at the time of this filing who the starter will be, the towering ex-Panthers goalie is quickly becoming a fan favourite. Stolarz has a tendency to lose his equipment and rely on his massive frame to make stops, he's displayed solid rebound control, and a calm, stoic demeanour on the ice. Stolarz and Joseph Woll were expected to work in tandem, but he's quietly won the No. 1 role outright, and Toronto has the luxury of rolling out two solid starters — it's just that Stolarz has been one of the NHL's best goalies, while Woll has been a competent starter.
<h2>Lineup news:</h2>
Matthews is ruled out, Max Domi will be in the lineup, while it'll be compelling to see whether Nick Robertson, Alex Steeves or Pontus Holmberg is the odd man out among Toronto's forward corps.

Here is Saturday's projected lineup:
<div class="c-message_kit__blocks c-message_kit__blocks--rich_text">
<div class="c-message__message_blocks c-message__message_blocks--rich_text" data-qa="message-text">
<div class="p-block_kit_renderer" data-qa="block-kit-renderer">
<div class="p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper--first">
<div class="p-rich_text_block" dir="auto">
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Bobby McMann-John Tavares-Mitch Marner</i>
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Matthew Knies-Max Domi-William Nylander</i>
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Pontus Holmberg-David Kampf-Nick Robertson</i></div>
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Connor Dewar-Steven Lorentz-Ryan Reaves</i></div>
<div></div>
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Morgan Rielly-Jani Hakanpaa</i>
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Jake McCabe-Chris Tanev</i>
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Conor Timmins</i></div>
<div></div>
<div class="p-rich_text_section"><i data-stringify-type="italic">Anthony Stolarz (projected starter)</i>
<i data-stringify-type="italic">Joseph Woll</i></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="c-message_kit__reaction_bar c-reaction_bar c-reaction_bar--collapsed" role="group" data-qa="reaction_bar" aria-label="Reactions" data-stringify-ignore="true"></div>
<h2>Who to watch:</h2>
Matthew Knies is using his speed, size, power and physicality to become one of the NHL's real breakout stars. This profile, published on <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/how-matthew-knies-has-emerged-genuine-breakout-star-for-maple-leafs">November 1</a>, is a guide to what he's done well. He's drifting off his linemates to get to the net, he's becoming an expert screener, he runs over opponents, and he needs to work on cutting down silly penalties away from the net which are the byproduct of aggression. Knies is just 22 years old, and is the bridge between the Maple Leafs' present and future.
<h2>Ex-Oilers updates:</h2>
There are no real ex-Oilers updates to record from this year's groups, but McMann is the pride of Wainwright, Alberta and his ability to generate rush offence is electrifying to watch when he's at his best. We're looking forward to seeing Connor Brown, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott, all of whom had lengthy stints with the Maple Leafs before moving on to the next phases of their careers!

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